Profitable punting is a balance between Strike Rate% and Profit on Turnover% and an essential part of any successful punter is obtaining the best possible price about their selections.
Currently from my situation way down here in the island paradise of Tasmania the best average price I can obtain is Betfair Starting Price but I am working on developing a table of comparison between various Betfair Price levels available at various minutes before the Jump to try and find a sweet spot that may be even better than BSP.
Today we will commence by re-evaluating our updated G2M Excel database now with over 90,000 records in it as at the end of Dec 2021.
I have already determined that the following Tracks do not produce a positive profit for my basic settings and so these remain unticked in my G2M program and I only record and bet on the other GB, Aus and NZL tracks.
- Bendigo
- Casino
- Cranbourne
- Goulburn
- Swindon
- The Gardens
- Warrugal
- Warnambool
- Wentworth Park
We start by fine tuning our previous criteria and running the full database we find that our previous setting of using a maximum Volume% setting of 90% is now surpassed by using 88.75%.
So now we leave the max Volume% of 88.75% locked in and run the Minimum Volume% firstly in units of 1% and then again fine tuning in units of 0.25%.
We come up with a swing from losses to a small profit at a Volume% setting of >58.25. Note the excellent SR% of 51.8%.
Now running similar series for the Volume Ratings we come up with new fine tuned Minimum of >415 and Maximum of <1578.
BETS | P/L | WINS | SR% | PoT% |
6565 | $53.75 | 3401 | 51.8% | 0.8% |
We have slightly improved both our SR% and our POT%.
But look what happens if we stay with those criteria settings and simply restrict our selections to the number one or top Ranked Volume Rating.
BETS | P/L | WINS | SR% | PoT% |
6510 | $114.23 | 3379 | 51.9% | 1.8% |
We sacrifice 1% of strike rate pick up 5.6% of POT% with half the bets.
Then we try leaving out the Top Ranked Volume Rating and substituting maximum and minimum prices. We find that >$1.20 and <$7.70 produce
BETS | P/L | WINS | SR% | PoT% |
3219 | $239.80 | 1640 | 50.9% | 7.4% |
Almost identical to our previous P/L of $114.23 and if we then add the Top Ranked Volume Rating we get….
BETS | P/L | WINS | SR% | PoT% |
6502 | $113.14 | 3372 | 51.9% | 1.7% |
So we can exclude using Price as a criteria which is always beneficial due to its last few seconds volatility and even the vagaries of using BSP.
Finally for now we will examine the Day of the Week. This is closely related to the Tracks as they generally race the same tracks on the same day of the week.
BETS | P/L | WINS | SR% | PoT% |
3217 | $237.80 | 1638 | 50.9% | 7.4% |
With no Top Ranked Volume Ranking restriction our weekdays produce
| S | 988 | $271.29 | 546 | 55.3% | 27.5% |
| M | 937 | $167.48 | 493 | 52.6% | 17.9% |
| T | 1099 | $91.39 | 594 | 54.0% | 8.3% |
| W | 898 | -$103.81 | 461 | 51.3% | -11.6% |
| T | 946 | $202.89 | 494 | 52.2% | 21.4% |
| F | 952 | -$175.24 | 473 | 49.7% | -18.4% |
| S | 690 | -$339.77 | 318 | 46.1% | -49.2% |
My best betting results are on Sun, Mon, and Tue.
And with the Top Ranked Volume restriction included they produce
| S | 480 | $3.74 | 249 | 51.9% | 0.8% |
| M | 487 | $205.38 | 258 | 53.0% | 42.2% |
| T | 537 | $37.08 | 278 | 51.8% | 6.9% |
| W | 465 | -$14.11 | 238 | 51.2% | -3.0% |
| T | 430 | $239.08 | 233 | 54.2% | 55.6% |
| F | 468 | -$108.87 | 221 | 47.2% | -23.3% |
| S | 352 | -$122.51 | 163 | 46.3% | -34.8% |
My best betting results are on Wed and Thursdays.
We will leave the Greyhounds alone on Fridays and Saturdays to concentrate on our horse racing punting.
If we all continue sharing ideas and developments and Paul and the Bettingdev boys improve and implement them we will have a nice little earner running 24/7. At this stage my statistics and evaluations are affected by the failure of G2M to auto update the results from midnight until mid-morning. This may be a bug connected with my Australian location or perhaps it is only connected to Test Mode ON results?
Until the next Blog – Keep winning….Mike.